My ThoughtsThese notes are written on a laptop and are in the progress of creation.
Firstly the use of percentages:
100% is used when a phenomena is over the whole county, the air being a chaotic fluid can never be forecast with this accuracy. It is therefore only used when amendments are necessary; e.g. when the forecast is for rain and I wake up to snow.
90% & 80% means phenomena are excpected to be frequent
70% ia used when phenomena are excpected to occasional.
60% is used when ohenomena are excpected to be scattered.
50% Not used.
40% and 30% means phenomena expected to be fairly isolated.
10% to 20% means pheneomena very unlikely except in a very few places.
The words 'risk' and 'chance' are interchangeable.
Pictures: I am aware that there are not any, most I can get are heavily covered by government copyright - any government from Iceland to USA. Also transfering them into this page is time consuming. Nevertheless I may be able to fill this gap in other ways.
Time: each forecast takes about three hours to complete. the main reason is trying to assimilate all available data - there is a lot out there and I am not limited to one country or one computer model, this is great in a way but each needs to be given thought-then of course there is nature, the sky and 'gut' feeling.
To be continued....